The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008, lists Behavioral Economics, Mobile Robots, Surface computers, Augmented reality, Cloud Computing and Microblogging as the new upcoming technologies.
As per a series of Gartner’s studies, over the years, each technology passes through the phases of
- Technology Trigger
- Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Trough of disillusionment
- Slope of enlightenment
- Plateau of productivity
during its lifecycle
Gartner’s own summary is this:
[…] “Although Web 2.0 is now entering the Trough of Disillusionment, it will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications,” said Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow. “Later – in between two and five years – cloud computing and service-oriented architecture (SOA), which is moving up the Slope of Enlightenment, will deliver transformation in terms of driving deep changes in the role and capabilities of IT. Finally, public virtual worlds, which are suffering from disillusionment after their peak of hype in 2007, will in the long term represent an important media channel to support and build broader communities of interest.”
Some interesting aspects here-
- Microblogging(Twitter) seems to have some scope …
- Web 2.0 has a good chance of achieving the promise that is currently seen as so much hype.
- Corporate Blogging, my area of interest, seems to be emerging out of the Trough of disillusionment and is significantly slotted in the category of “LESS THAN 2 YEARS” to mainstream adoption.
- Social Network analysis is within 2-5 years of mainstream adoption.
As organizations struggle with market coverage and penetration strategies, Web 2.0 offers numerous tools to aid the organizational endeavour to reach the consumer.With a distinct price advantage, and the ability to build a brand online, building brand identity, meaning and forging brand relationships seem to be a viable option.
Similarly, we did a quick summary of this year’s Gartner webinar entitled “Emerging Technology Hype Cycle 2010: What’s Hot and What’s Not”, presented by Jackie Fenn, you might be interested in reading, for comparison purposes.
http://bimehq.com/cloud-computing/analysis-gartners-emerging-technology-hype-cycle-2010-hot/