How often have you been asked by executive management “What’s the probability that you will win this deal?” and maybe even more important “What is the probability that you will win this deal as forecasted?” Unless there is a consistent set of metrics used to determine win probability, the answers will be as inconsistent as the number of sales people responding. Clearly the lack of a consistent set of win probability metrics wreaks havoc on the believability and accuracy of the sales forecast. Yet all sales professionals and sales executives know their key indicators of win/lose. The problem is that win/lose metrics are often not codified into the sales process and/or win probability is based wholly on the funnel stage. Tying win probability to the funnel stage is like predicting the outcome of a baseball game based on the number of hits each team has or the outcome of a football game based on yards rushed. Both metrics are important but inconclusive.
We suggest that each company review their own win/lose metrics. Below is a sample win/lose model that a company might use as a starting point to determine the win probability of a deal. You might want to run each of your “must win” deals through this model to determine the win probability based on these metric. Please let me know how accurate this model predicts win/lose in your environment.
Prospect’s Need-to-Buy/Pain (SCORE)
? Need-to-Buy quantified, prospect committed to your company (14)
? Need-to-Buy quantified, prospect committed to a purchase(9)
? Need-to-Buy not quantified, prospect interested (5)
? Low priority (nice to have), no commitment (0)
? DANGER – No priority (little interest), no commitment (-5)
Business Case Justification
? Our company is involved in building the business case (12)
? Our company understands the business case framework (7)
? Our company does not know the business case framework (0)
? There is no business case framework (-5)
? DANGER – Business case built based on competitor’s advantages(-10)
Solution Fit (as perceived by the prospect)
? Our solution is unique and provides enough value for change (10)
? Our solution is better than existing solution or process (7)
? Our solution is similar to existing solutions or process (0)
? Our solution conflicts with existing installed solutions (-5)
? DANGER – Our Competitor has a better fit or superior solution (-10)
The Decision Making Process (DMP)
? We know the DMP and heavily influence it (12)
? We know the DMP and we have some influence (10)
? We know the DMP, but have little influence (4)
? DANGER – We do not know the DMP (-4)
? DANGER – Our competitor controls the DMP (-16)
Sponsor or Champion or Inside Sales Person (ISP)
? Our Sponsor is the Key Decision Maker (KDM) (12)
? Our Sponsor has some influence on the DMP (4)
? We do not have a Sponsor (0)
? The competitor’s Sponsor has more influence on the DMP (-4)
? DANGER – The competitor’s Sponsor is the KDM (-8)
Competitive Awareness
? We know the competitor’s tactics, strengths and weaknesses (7)
? We have identified the competitive issues (4)
? DANGER – We know very little about competitive situation (0)
? DANGER – We have consistently lost to one of the competitors (-5)
Evaluation/Decision Criteria
? We helped to write the evaluation/decision criteria or RFP (12)
? We have a positive influence on the decision criteria (6)
? No formal buying process in place (3)
? DANGER – We are unable to influence the evaluation criteria (0)
? DANGER – The competitor wrote the evaluation criteria – RFP (-10)
Prospect’s Funding/Timeline
? Funding is committed now for this purchase (10)
? Funding will be approved within 30 days (5)
? Funding identified, but not committed to this project (0)
? DANGER – Prospect is trying to obtain funding (-3)
? DANGER – No funding available this year or business period (-6)
Account Buying History – Penetration
? Prospect is our satisfied customer (10)
? Prospect is competitor’s unsatisfied customer (5)
? Buying history does not apply to this opportunity (0)
? DANGER – Prospect is our dissatisfied customer (-3)
? Danger – Prospect is the competitor’s satisfied customer (-6)
GOOD SELLING!
